Usibye ibiciro bya lisansi; Hasobanuwe izindi ngaruka mbi 5 zidashobora kwirindwa intambara ya Iran igiye guteza U Rwanda

Zirikana gusoma ibi mu nkuru 

• Izamuka ry’ibiciro bya lisansi mu Rwanda rifite inkomoko ku isoko mpuzamahanga.
• Ingaruka zihita zigaragara ku buzima bwa buri munsi.
• U Rwanda rushobora guhura n’igabanuka ry’umusaruro w’ubukungu (GDP)
• Ifaranga n’isoko ry’imari bishobora guhungabana.
• Ubwiyongere bw’ibiciro (inflation) bushobora gukaza umurego.

Urwego rw’Igihugu Ngenzuramikorere , [RURA], rwaraye rutangaje ko guhera ku wa 4 Mata 2026 saa kumi n’ebyiri za mu gitondo, igiciro cya lisansi cyazamutse kiva ku mafaranga 1,989 ku litiro kigera kuri 2,303 Frw. Mazutu na yo yazamutse iva ku 1,948 Frw igera kuri 2,205 Frw kuri litiro.

Uru rwego ntirwazuyaze kwemeza ko iri zamuka rifitanye isano n’ihindagurika ry’ibiciro bya peteroli ku isoko mpuzamahanga, ryatewe n’ihungabana ry’akarere k’Uburasirazuba bwo hagati gafite uruhare runini mu gutanga ingufu ku isi.

Uretse lisansi, n’ibiciro by’ingendo rusange byahinduwe. Mu Mujyi wa Kigali, igiciro fatizo cyashyizwe kuri 59.28 Frw ku kilometero ku mugenzi, mu gihe ku ngendo zo hagati y’imijyi kiri kuri 41.58 Frw ku kilometero. Ibi bizatangira gukurikizwa ku wa 6 Mata 2026.

Dore izindi ngaruka mbi ziri kototera ubukungu bw’u Rwanda mu gihe intambara yaba ikomeje.

1. Irindi zamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro by’ingufu

Kuva ibitero byatangiye ku wa 28 Gashyantare, Iran yagabye ibitero ku mato anyura mu nzira ya Strait of Hormuz, inzira inyuramo hafi 20% bya peteroli na gaze ku isi. Ibi byatumye urujya n’uruza rw’ayo mato rugabanuka cyane.

Igiciro cya peteroli yo ku rwego mpuzamahanga (Brent crude) cyahise kizamuka kigera ku madolari 106 kuri buri fu, kivuye kuri 72 mbere y’intambara. Gaze yo mu bwoko bwa LNG na yo yazamutse hafi 60%.

Kuba QatarEnergy yarahagaritse ibikorwa byayo bya LNG nyuma y’igitero cya drone cyaturutse muri Iran byarushijeho gukaza ikibazo, kuko Qatar itanga 20% bya LNG ikoreshwa ku isi.

Ibi byatumye ibihugu byinshi cyane n’u Rwanda rurimo bishaka ubundi buryo bwo kubona ingufu, ariko ku biciro biri hejuru cyane.

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2. Igabanuka ry’umusaruro mbumbe w’ubukungu bw’igihugu [GDP]

Izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ingufu ryatumye ibihugu byinshi bitangira kugabanya ikoreshwa ryazo. Mu bihugu birenga 85 birimo n’u Rwanda, ibiciro bya lisansi byazamutse.

Usibye mu Rwanda , Leta yakanguriye abaturage kwirinda ingendo zitari ngombwa, Ibihugu nka Pakistan na Philippines byashyizeho gahunda y’akazi k’iminsi ine mu cyumweru, abandi bakozi bagakorera mu rugo. Ahandi nko muri Sri Lanka, abaturage basabwa kwiyandikisha mbere yo kugura lisansi.

Izi ngamba zose zigamije kuzigama ingufu, ariko zigatuma umusaruro w’ubukungu ugabanuka, kuko inganda zitagikora nk’uko byari bisanzwe.

3. Isoko ry’imari n’imigabane rirahungabana

Kuva intambara yatangira, amasoko y’imari ku isi yagabanutseho hafi 5.5%. Amasoko yo muri Aziya ni yo yibasiwe cyane:

• Tokyo Stock Exchange yagabanutseho 11%
• New York Stock Exchange igabanukaho 6%
• London Stock Exchange igabanukaho 5.3%

Impamvu nyamukuru ni uko ibihugu byinshi byo muri Aziya bishingira cyane ku ngufu zituruka mu Kigobe cya Pérsique.

Ibi birasobanura neza ko ifaranga ry’u Rwanda risanzwe rivunjwa hashingiwe ku mubare w’abarishaka n’abaritanga bizwi nka ‘Floating Exchange Rate’ naryo nta kabuza ritagomba gusigwa rikubiswe ishoka n’iyi nkubiri.

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4. Ubwiyongere bw’ibiciro n’ingaruka ku mibereho [Inflation]

Umuyobozi w’Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari [IMF], Kristalina Georgieva, yatangaje ko iyi ntambara ishobora guteza izamuka ry’ibiciro (inflation) rikomeye.

Nkuko Intebe y’ubwanditsi ya Igisubizo ibyemeranywaho, mu mateka izamuka rikabije rya peteroli nk’iri ryagiye rikurikirwa n’ihungabana ry’ubukungu, nk’uko byabaye mu 1973, 1978 na 2008. Ibi bishobora no guteza ikibazo cya “stagflation” aho ibiciro bizamuka ariko ubukungu bugahagarara byumwihariko bikaba bibi cyane iyo bigeze ku bihugu nk’u Rwanda biri mu nzira y’iterambere biza byikubitiraho ko kidakora ku Nyanja.

5. Ingaruka ku ngendo zo mu kirere

Ingendo zo mu kirere na zo zagizweho ingaruka zikomeye. Ibigo byinshi by’indege byazamuye ibiciro by’amatike bitewe n’uko igiciro cya benzene y’indege cyazamutse kigera hagati ya 150 na 200 by’amadolari kuri buri fu nk’urugero fatizo rukoreshwa.

Ibigo nka Qantas Airways, Air New Zealand na Air India byatangaje ko byongereye ibiciro.

Nanone, indege nyinshi zirimo kunyura inzira ndende zirinda ikirere cy’Ikigobe, bigatuma urugendo rurushaho gutwara igihe n’amafaranga menshi. Ibi birushaho gushyira u Rwanda mu mwanya mubi wo guhura n’ingaruka zikomeye.

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Nubwo bimeze gutyo ariko , Guverinoma y’u Rwanda ivuga ko iri gukurikirana neza uko ibiciro bihinduka ku rwego mpuzamahanga kugira ngo ifate ingamba zigabanya ingaruka ku bukungu bw’igihugu ndetse Minisitiri w’Intebe, Justin Nsengiyumva, yaraye atangaje ko nubwo hari izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko mpuzamahanga, nta mpamvu yo guterwa ubwoba n’ibi.

Ubwo yari mu kiganiro n’abanyamakuru yagize ati: “Ntabwo turi mu bwoba kandi ntidushaka ko abaturage bagira impungenge. Twakoze isesengura ry’ibihari kandi turacyafite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza guhangana n’ibi bibazo.”

Yakomeje asaba abacuruzi kudakoresha iki kibazo nk’urwitwazo rwo kuzamura ibiciro mu buryo budafite ishingiro, ashimangira ko hazakomeza kubaho igenzura rikomeye.